5.13.2007

Steelers Draft 2007 - Smars' Review

Let me start off by saying that the NFL draft is one of my two favorite events of the year in sports, in close competition with the first weekend of the NCAA tourney. Both completely consume my life during that time and should be celebrated with BBQ's and beer. Unfortunately, this year I was obviously in France for the NFL draft, but I had to keep tradition going on my own. I bought a case of Kronenbourg, a block of cheese, and 3 feet of French bread, then glued myself to ESPN's draftcast and radio. It was a great time! It allowed me to analyze each pick more and have a Pittsburgh-free, untainted view of the draft.

First, I think that the draft should be graded somewhere between a "B+" and a "?". But I think Steeler fans are being especially harsh this year regarding the draft. Since there are so many questions regarding the team and coach, they are looking for a young savior from the draft to bring some positive excitement to alleviate some of the negative apprehension. People forget how drafts work... I would say around 3 (maybe 4 tops) actually remain on the roster for several years. (If you need a reminder of previous drafts, this guy has an outstanding site with historical Steelers draft analysis.) So don't grade too harshly just because everyone was looking for a "new" team all together. It won't work like that... and I can spot definitely 2 (and as many as 4) players from this draft that will have playing time (or are starters) for at least 3 years.

OK... I will go through my impressions on each pick in a minute, but here is a summary of my thoughts: I think that there's a very good chance (considering the defense style transition) that Timmons and/or Woodley will become impact starters, rather quickly. If Michael Bush becomes a star and Spaeth is a flop, then that's a bad pick. Sepulveda... OLB/P... my favorite pick (even with trading up). And to top it off... WE GOT A NATIONAL CHAMPION GATOR in Dallas Baker, "The Touchdown Maker"! But overall, I am intrigued by even the lesser picks, mainly because our team average height sky-rocketed on draft day! 6'7 TE, 6'3 P, 6'4 DT, and 6'3 WR... "you can't teach speed (or height)", and at these kids all have at least one of those.

Here is my pick-by-pick analysis:

1 - 1st Rd. Timmons, OLB, FSU - Alright... this pick I'm not that crazy about, but I really don't know too much about the guy. The only defensive end that I did like was Carriker, who went two spots before us. Then the Jets swooped in and took Revis (who I believe the Steelers would have chosen instead of Timmons). I don't know that I believe that Revis will be an all-star, but he would have been exciting to see. But we have Timmons and I'm not going to make any decisions on him until I see him in the preseason. All I know is that he is from FSU, who has an extremely high success rate in the NFL (and don't say what about Alonzo Jackson, because that's an anomoly). Plus, Bryant McFadden in an interview before the draft was singing Timmon's praises since they played together at FSU. So knowing that at least one person on the defense wanted him says something. I really think there were only a handful of players that were worth 1st round billing, so I'm not upset about Timmons, and I'm hopeful he learns well and brings some passion to the field.

2 - 2nd Rd. Woodley, DE, Michigan - Woodley is the classic case of being a college football legend (12 sacks last year, all-time leader at Michigan) and falling short from NFL scouts. I don't know what he lacks, besides maybe being a "tweener" OLB/DE. Plus he might be a little small, but as I said before, you don't have all of the answers during the draft, but I like the chances that at least one of Timmons and Woodley will become starters. Finally, I have seen some video compilations of him on youtube, and not that he did anything that spectacular on the field, but he carries a lot of attitude and passion... which means a lot in my eyes. Look at Tyrone Carter... I'm pretty sure that him flapping his lips and shaking his head is the only reason he has seen increased playing time recently.

3 - 3rd Rd. Spaeth, TE, Minnesota - This is a pretty puzzling pick. However, he is 6'7". That pretty much eliminates any questions I have about this pick. I am curious to see how he works out in the red zone and how Arians plans on using him. I am willing to let Arians try some crazy 3 TE sets, as I am willing to let Timmons go to a 4-3 Tampa 2. The only problem with this pick is that I might have enjoyed Michael Bush here. However, there was absolutely no need to force-address the running back situation given the selection to choose from. There were only 6 out of 32 RBs on predraft list that were listed at over 220lbs. And that's very small. There were only 3 RBs that I would have wanted out of those 32: Adrian Peterson (because he's Adrian Peterson), Michael Bush (whom we still have to see has recovered from his knee), and Gary Russel (who we wound up picking up in the rookie free agents afterwards). Even Tony Hunt from PSU and DeShawn Wynn from UF wouldn't have been more than 3rd down backs for us. I would much rather stick with Willie (who for some reason still hasn't convinced Pittsburgh fans that he "can handle it") and pick up some veteran or use Davenport. The moral of the story is that we didn't have to force that pick to address a RB when there were barely any available in the first place, when we are playing in a RB-saturated league.

4 - 4th Rd. Sepulveda, P, Baylor - This is my favorite pick and the most frustrating one to hear fans and sports writers talk about. He is (by far) the best punter in college over the last 3 years. He won the Ray Guy Award twice, which has never been done and he won it the second time this past year after tearing his ACL the previous Spring. He holds the NCAA record for average punt distance at over 45yds. Apparently there is a nice video of him floating around that shows him crushing someone on a punt return. That's fun... and does a lot for team energy. The argument is "Why trade up for a punter, who is in only a handful of plays?" First, they traded up because Jacksonville took a punter from Maryland 11 picks before us. So one of the two top punters was off the board, and if we are crazy for picking Sepulveda, what about Jacksonville for NOT taking him and going with the other one? He is only in the game a handful of plays, but by drafting him, we will probably have no punter worries and lower average opponent starting field position for the next decade! Since we had such awful starting field position last year, it's easier to remember how disheartening it was to always have to go the length of the field and watch Coclough "try" to field a punt.
The stat people look at that is misleading is average yards per punt. So if adding an extra 5yds per punt isn't enough for you (Gardocki 41.3avg, Sepulveda 46.5avg), then think about pinning the opponent deep. Gardocki only put 11 of 65 punts last year inside the 20, Sepulveda had 26 of 66. I think a 4th round pick is WELL worth it. Additionally, he is a freakin' 6'3 an ex-linebacker. This means that probably no punts will sail over his head and he will be an 11th guy on the field to tackle, instead of just being a speed bump. Plus, he seems to be a bit of a nut and will probably have some morning radio show or whatever. I think it's great... this is the ONLY draft pick that I can say with absolute confidence that he will start and be adequate/excellent for years to come.

5 - 4th Rd. McBean, DT, Okla St. - I don't have much to say about him, other than he's 6'4 and if he puts on about 20lbs he might have a chance to be a decent takle. May be be good on special teams with blocking kicks.

6 - 5th Rd. Stephenson, G, Rutgers - I don't know much about him either, but Rutgers had a prolific running game this year, so that means he was a big part of that. I don't mind seeing if he develops, which is generally the path that offensive linemen take.

7 - 5th Rd. Gay, CB, Louisville - This is the worst pick. If we were going to take a CB at all, we should have done this 2 picks earlier instead of taking this bum. They say he resembles Deshea Townsend. Am I the only one that doesn't find this a compliment?

8 - 7th Rd. Baker, WR, UF - Come on... of course I love this pick. This was the only pick during the draft that I let out and audible "YEAH!". He's a solid 6'3 WR who played on a championship team that was stacked at the position. Don't look at stats, because the Gators spread the ball around like crazy. He will be an excellent option in the red zone and some tough 3rd down plays. He's not that quick, but he runs excellent routes and has great hands.

I think some of these players will be great for the team. So cool your jets, and let’s see how they do this summer!

2 comments:

The Office Banner said...

Smars-
Loved the write up of the NFL draft. Awesome that you were able to link up to draft, I salute your dedication. and your damn right about one of the best holidays of the year. I will also let you know that both chase and I played our parts in carring on the necessary tradition of the draft party!!

I just wanted to say that at first i was shocked at the notion of trading up for a punter but when i finally got a shot to do some research on the kid I realized what kind of talent we were getting. Field position special teams makes up 1/3 of the football game. as far as the tight end, we will see how this plays out but it seems he is going to be a redzone oriented reciever rather than a primary run blocker.

coffee and chocolate began in france?? who knew. and i must agree with you, roundabouts are terrible design.

keep the good posting bud, loved it! i will return, i must work now.

The Lost William J said...

Benny, thanks for the email, I wondered if the people in france engulfed you but I'm glad to see your alieve, bring back some of those women fro me by the way!!!
Anyways, read your whole critique, as for Gay, was a hell of a playmaker his junior year, and just like every other "#1" corner on their teams, they threw away from him his senior year, but decent pick, I think if another team would have drafted him he would make the squad, but he will be "stiller" P.S.'ed but someone else will take a chance on him after they see how productive he will be in camp. As for Stephensen he is a road grader just like Kemeateu, but will neevr see the field like him! Most of the big runs against Pitt, which were alot, they showed on the jumbo tron and he blowed open huge holes chipping the d-lineman out of the view then demolishing clint session, who SHOULD HAVE NEVER BEEN DRAFTED!!! Also, if Keme and Cam get to play it makes one hell of a hawaiin punch in the middle around his blackness Chucky Okobi.
Best pick, other than woodley, was Sepulveda, he BOOOOOOMS the ball, me being the college football nerd I am have noticed him since his frosh/soph year when he was the #1 punter in net average, Gardocki should be cut now to give him more reps in camp, but they wont. But I liked their draft, being the outside critiquer as I am now, and loved your words!!!!